I watch the new listings religiously, even if I rarely get that rare overlap of time, energy, libido, and money to actually make it happen.  My sense from watching the listings -- vague as my senses tend to be! -- is that prices are ever so slightly coming down.  I don't get the sense that specific women are lowering their prices, but rather than more new ladies are coming in at slightly lower prices.  

So I hereby introduce the "ML Index" in an attempt to measure the cost of mongering in Hong Kong on a consistent basis...  There are actually two indices -- a 141 index and a hotel index, since those are completely different markets.  Here are the results:

141 index -- $362.79
Hotel index -- $745.59

The sample set for both indices is the new and updated listings for the last week as of 6 pm on Monday the 16th.  There is obviously a bias associated with using new and updated listings rather than all listings.  The women who are established and don't feel the need to "update" their listings probably charge more.  So this index probably understates the average cost, particularly for 141 ladies.  On the other hand, to the extent that prices do move, we will see it most quickly in the new and updated listings.  This is consistent with my intent -- to use the ML index as a "leading indicator"...

For the 141 index, I used the 141 price if listed without further qualification.  If multiple prices were listed, I used the "ML" price (I also included the few cases in which the ML price was only listed with a "special").  If there was no "ML" price, I used the "whole package" price.  If none of those prices existed, I ignored the listing.  There were 183 viable listings.  The hotel index was much easier, since they only quote one price.  In this case, there were 111 listings.

I searched the listings by working backwards through the ID numbers.  So it was easy to separate the listings into the newest third, middle third, and oldest third.  Not surprisingly, the new kids on the block charge lower prices.  The ladies who have been around the block a few times may be a little shop-worn, but the ones who still remain are obviously attracting customers.  So they charge higher prices on average, but the range of prices is also much higher.  The following lists the indices in order -- most recent profiles, middle, oldest profiles:

141 index -- $344.75, $356.89, $386.72
Hotel index -- $697.57, $736.49, $802.70

If nothing else, we can conclude that an average hotel girl costs just about exactly double that of an average 141 girl.  It also appears that the most experienced women average about 10 percent more than the rest.  I promise to update the index at irregular intervals, which could be every few weeks to months to years to never...  But I make that promise, and I will stick by it!

Have fun, CGP

P.S. For all of you hard-core statistics buffs... if there are any such diseased minds in HK.  The range in prices for the 141 ladies spanned a low of $150! (May of Cheung Sha Wan...  http://www.sex141.com/en/viewid.php?uid=21384) to $600 (Maw Maw of TST...  http://www.sex141.com/en/viewid.php?uid=18769).  On the hotel side, the range is from $400 (Lam Lam of Tseun Wan...  http://www.sex141.com/en/viewid.php?uid=29163) to $1500! (Cindy of TST...  http://www.sex141.com/en/viewid.php?uid=7800).  The standard deviation of the 141 prices was $59.41, which yields a standard error in the 141 index value of only $4.40.  For the hotel ladies, there are five outliers above $1000, which pushes up the standard deviation to $162.12 and the standard error of the hotel index to $15.46.  Enjoy!

A great deal of work done there bro I'm curious if you some how put all the data in some kind of excel spreadsheet with all the name figures and locations.

Here is my virtual karma for ya...

+7  A nice piece of work.

"also appears that the most experienced women average about 10 percent more than the rest."

How was this derived ?

I think he assumed ID number correllates with length of time in the DB.

Actually that may be a flawed premise - do you know if they reuse lapsed ID numbers on new girls?

I think before the last time this site was brought down it was like that ...
girls come and go but the ID # remained the same when they come back.

Now days I don't think thats the case, a few girls retain the old # but I notice some that comes back under different
names and have new IDs.

CGP, thanks for the 141 scientific spin.

WOW!!! I need to understand the whole index computation again...

Thanks!  Actually, I calculated the index actually by doing a running tally on a piece of paper.  When I went back to calculate the "PS" statistics, though, I had to put the prices into a spreadsheet.  That took all of the time.  When I do it again, I'll know how to make it faster.  But I didn't tally all of the names, just the extremes.  Then I went back and searched up those links after the fact.

Yes, I did make the assumption that the lowest ID numbers are the ladies who have been working the longest.  I realise that's not a perfect assumption, because ladies do disappear and come back with other IDs...  and IDs sometimes get swapped around to other ladies.

Have fun, CGP

It's close enough for government work.  

Thanks and keep it going!

I had a long conference call back to the US tonight, so that seemed like a perfect time to update the index.  Here are the average prices for "make love" or "whole package" for all new or updated listings...  

Hotel girls...  $763.27 ($163.31, $16.01, 104)
141 WGs...  $368.40 ($63.29, $5.80, 119)

The numbers in each set of parentheses are the standard deviation, standard error, and total number of observations.  The total number of 141 listings was way down from the last compilation...  This appears to have occurred because a significant percentage of the 141 listings this time did not offer ML or only offered it with massage.  Consistent with the definition of the index, I ignored all such profiles.

Note also that I made one change to the calculation of the hotel girl index.  There were an inordinate number of hotel girls (18 total) at or above $1000.  The number of such women that appear in the new listings in any week is pretty random, and it has a huge impact on the average.  I thought about excluding them completely, but doing so would fail to catch a potential upward creep of rates into this bracket.  So I instead decided to ignore all Koreans and Japanese HGs, since these girls really comprise a small separate market.  This makes the current index slightly inconsistent with the previous index, since I believe the former average did include several Korean and Japanese girls.  I intend to exclude them consistently from now on.

Because of this change in definition, I would have expected the HG index to go down slightly.  Instead it went up by $17.68.  I suppose I could have done an F-test to determine the likelihood that this change is significant, but I didn't.  But it sure looks to me like the low end of the HGs have dried up a lot.  The 141 index went up a few dollars.  To me that just looks like noise...

Have fun, CGP

[ Last edited by  Caligynephiliac at 4-4-2009 03:05 ]

Sounds pretty time-intensive if you have to input the data into an excel sheet the second time when updating the index. for the effort if you did do so.

Surprised that your stats reveal a slight upward trend.  Doesn't really matter perhaps, cos there will always be a mongering market regardless of price.

Hrmm i suppose i could write something that maybe can hit the site every hour and congregate the data... maybe.

If you did all this on a spreadsheet, im going to bet you are in a finance related field. You guys are probably the only people still using them to do crazy calculations.

My last "big" project at a bank was writing some giant spreadsheet to do crazy shit. boring but got the job done.




could someone, probably a FA, look over the result and let me know what it really means. when you speak of std error and std deviation and apply that to WGs, what info does it really reveal? Does it give a "average" amount that a fellow bro is spending? or are you trying to calc how much money total is spent on mongering.

wow i just took statistic in university & OMG Standard deviation.... mean ><"

Actually, I'm an economic consultant.  We think finance people make spreadsheets without understanding what they mean.  

You wondered what is the "average" amount that a bro is spending...  Those are given by the summary index figures...  $763.27/session for a HG...  $368.40/session for a 141 walk-up...  plus any tips, which of course are entirely unobservable...

As for the rest of the stuff...  standard deviations and standard errors...  if it doesn't mean anything to you, just forget it.  I only supplied that for the minority who might be curious...

Have fun, CGP

P.S.  I intend to do this on a regular basis.  I doubt that it will yield useful and interesting data every time.  But I suspect that over a period of years, it will be interesting (at least to some!) to have a record of HG and 141 prices over time...  Think of me as the Tycho Brahe of HK mongering...  

nice work - hope u figure out a easy way of doing this going forward.

nice work cali!  is the next step fielding a fantasy 141 team??!!

seriously though, i was having the same thoughts due to the economy and viewing these new listings...with facts in hand, you have proven the point.

You guys have time for this and I can't get ANYONE interested in working on better search and reporting tools!

-G