Anyone think that the double dip is around the corner for the US and/or Global economy?

Personally, I think a recession is mainly reflected in GDP and so far consumer/business spending has been strong enough. Specifically, consumer spending has been up about 3.2% last quarter... people are still going out to shop, finance expensive goods, etc. Businesses are looking to acquire, deals are flowing, etc. Sure volatility has been severe the last month, BP is bleeding oil and money, and Europe's debt crisis is dragging us down, but do you think these are all strong enough for us to enter into another recession? I would say a bear market but not a recession...

George Soros seems to think there's a good chance.

Soros: Global Debt May Spark Double Dip Recession
Thursday, 10 Jun 2010 04:57 PM

By: Dan Weil
We haven’t put the financial crisis behind us yet, and global debt woes could spark a double-dip recession, says hedge fund legend George Soros.

“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” he says.

“Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama,” he said in a speech, Bloomberg reports.

The current pressure on governments to cut their budget deficits while economic recoveries are still fragile is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s, he says.

Markets are now focused on Europe, but deficits are exploding around the world, with U.S. government debt hitting a record high of $13 trillion this month.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage,” Soros said.

“But the effects are liable to be felt worldwide. A double dip (recession) can't be ruled out." 

Economist Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” is quite concerned too.

"The situation today is vastly worse than a couple years ago,” he told CNBC. 

“We had less debt worldwide then and more people employed. Today, we have more risk in the system, and a lower tax base.”

Debt has spread “like a cancer,” Taleb said. 

In the U.S. interest rates will have to rise on government debt to attract foreign investors, creating big problems for the economy, Hiroki Shimazu, an economist at Nikko Cordial Securities, told Bloomberg.

Link here:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetT ... 010/06/10/id/361680


Sure there will be a double dip, even triple even apocalypse ending in war situation.


The reason being is that ALL countries have been playing magic printing press. Obummer last year printed 800bn USD for a stimulus.

The recovery never existed in the first place, strip out the 800bn and you are still deep in the shit,

let me put it this way you have $1000, you print out $800 total money supply is $1800.

On the face of it you still have $1000 in your pocket except the purchasing power is less now, so for the same amount of money you need more, so you need $1200, people see the disconnect of $1000-$1200 and think their money has grown by $200.

It hasn't the currency is merely debased.


Without the stimulus it will go back to crash mode.


With more printing out of money you piss china off who wants higher bond Yields who may simply refuse to buy US$ bonds = USA goes into hyperinflation.





China is doing EXACTLY the same thing spending its 1.2 trillion USD reserves on building infrastructure, the difference is they are spending money they have, while the US is borrowing more money it hasn't got.



China's recovery is also pretty fake. The way to see this is the Baltic dry sea index of shipping.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND

You'll notice it fell off a cliff last year despite what people say.

Whatever you do simply don't ever believe GDP or CPI, GDP is absolute bullshit

GDP has some freaky things in it, if you own your house right? GDP includes how much rent you WOULD of had to pay if you were renting.

If I own a computer, even if I've not bought a new one, advances in technology remember EVEN if I've not bought a new one are counted as an increase in productivity and thus added to GDP.

I mean fucking hell if I mow your lawn and you mow my lawn this is included as GDP, even debt repayment is added in as GDP, paying off your mortgage is added to GDP.

global economy is going to double dip pretty soon - Euro is going down the drain - English coalition government will drown in debts and China's exports will be reduced even more. Domestic demand in China was able to cover some of the losses thanks to stimulus packages, but it seems some of them are losing their power... means we are in deep trouble - so I better spend all my money on WGs....

So the question is why is the stock market rallying and how cecthe euro does just go to 1.15 against the dollar.  It is odd that slot of people share the view of the double dip yet the market really is pretty strong

Difficult to say right now... just a lot of volatility with a slight down bias. The pull back is expected given the 11month run up and in many ways can be a healthy. The altruism "sell in May and go away" could not have been any truer. I got out just before the recent pull back and sitting on sidelines looking to reenter. If or when the SP500 breaks and hold above 1100 (200EMA) I will go all equities, if it gets rejected watch out below.

I love all this volatility in the market. It makes me rich!

Keep trading everybody!

I really wish I could understand all the technical terms!

Any websites that you experts recommend for a newbie starting out ?

im starting to believe the only way to be in the market is to trade it. trading though against the hedge  funds that get the prices a nanosecond before everyone else is stacked deck against individual investors.  so some kind of macro approach is the only was for an individual to play.  problem of investing when it hits 1100 is that then they get people to come in then take money off the table and the individual loses and then you start all over again

Bsnake, it's worse than you think. The Hedge funds are crap... the trading desks on the i-banks are crap too.

The real snakes are proprietary trading firms. They trade with their own money for their own profit. Whereas the aforementioned do positional/directional trading .. where they essentially gamble on what direction the market is going to take (trading implied vol), the prop trading companies take a risk averse strategy.

They know so much about the mechanism behind option pricing that there is no way you can win against them. They are nota nanosecond faster, they are 100 microseconds faster..

There are these 'small' firms out there (look up Getco) that made over a BILLION USD last year in what was a great time of loss for i-banks, hedge funds and the private investor.

If you are gonna trade and you are not in one of these firms, you may as well take your money and lay it down in a casino. On a long enough timeline you'll lose to these guys just the same.

Nah it is completely rigged.

You get lucky sometimes but firms like Goldman Sachs is ALWAYS lucky. Which says rigged.

Just before the BP oil rig exploded well about 3 weeks before they sold 44% of their shares.

The UK director of BP also sold 35% of his shares.

Same thing before 911 in NY somebody shorted all the airline shares like crazy.

The stockmarket is incredibly rigged,

The Hang Seng is essentially a casino, TVB had somebody talk about it last year sometimes you win but many more loose.

There was this TVB interview about some kid at 19 who was a multimillionare because hit hit it big on the HS, he went on for ages and ages about how he researched companies etc, but in the end he admitted it was all BS and he did it on a gut feeling. Much like having £10000 and sticking it on red 8 on a roulette table.

Totally agree.  Question is why the governments of the world with all the financial reform going on let it continue.  They know about the timed trading and that the professionals have huge edge.  Yet they individuals make sucker bets all day long.

Because politicians are in on it too and do things against the interests of their countries.

In turning a blind eye  to such things they get to put their own fingers in these pies too.

Blair is absolutely hideous as a human being.

Tony Blair got his Stanley Morgan job which pays well over a million a year do you think because he had to hand in his CV and stand interview with the bosses or it was some form of payback for what he did in office?. Or you don't think Donald Tsang when he leaves office will not get an incredibly well paid job afterwards (i.e. payback from the rich men of HK and China for what he has done) Blair was even revealed to have signed a deal with S Korean oil firms, if they invaded the'd pay him millions, the rest if history.

He even got Mittal a loan for an Indian steel plant which cost 50,000 UK jobs.

Consumer spending is down in the US.   Not good for US or china.