Subject: man oh man oh man
venetiangirls
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Post at 5-2-2010 04:42  Profile P.M. 
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man oh man oh man

Doesnt' look good..........Seems like China will be letting its currency appreciate against the US dollar. Article came out today that says China's currency is currently 40% undervalued. That's a shockingly high percentage. They say there is a high likelihood that it's gonna happen this year so folks, grab your gear and head down asap cause it doenst look like the party will last much longer if they do go ahead and let the currency appreciate. I dont like this at all. Article is below


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100204/pl_nm/us_china_usa
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Canonball
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Post at 5-2-2010 07:35  Profile P.M. 
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doubt its going to rise too high
because the chinese gouverment doenst want to have its exchange rate diminished since its bad for their importation and exportation
nice topic btw
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waikeekee (WKK)
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Post at 5-2-2010 09:18  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #2 Canonball's post

I agree with you, but hey! what do I know? Most important, must know how to make more money.




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venetiangirls
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Post at 5-2-2010 13:21  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #3 waikeekee's post

how about preserving our money and making it last and that's not gonna happen with the appreicated yuan
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cbd
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Post at 5-2-2010 13:36  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #2 Canonball's post

" bad for their importation and exportation "
actually, apreaciating currency is only bad for the countries exportation.
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Eclipse
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Post at 5-2-2010 13:38  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #2 Canonball's post

I also agree. This is politics and posturing. China is not going to let their currency appreciate that much especially with all other recent disagreements both countries have had.
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venetiangirls
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:07  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #6 Eclipse's post

yeah, they might not let it appreciate that much but how much is much? It is currently undervalued by 40%. Understand there are tensions between china and the US but appreciating the yuan will/should not have anything to do with the tensions between the two countries.
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hunter (Real Slim Slapper-Status: 九叔 .)
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:16  Profile P.M. 
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I dont think the chinese administration is that dumb to appreciate their Yuan drastically.

China currently holding more than 2 trillion USD in US bonds, what incentive do they have?

US is helpless though, b'cos they are still in the recession and recent unemployment rate still deteorating.
Unless US going into a more serious recession, 40% is higly unlikely number to put your money on.


Having said that, the recent RMB does appreciate from 88.3 to 87.7 to HKD100




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venetiangirls
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:22  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #8 hunter's post

when did this appreciation begin? 88.3 to 87.7 last year when I was in China and same as this year, for every 1000HKD I got back 880 RMB exactly. Got this in Zhuhai and HK so if that appreciation was recent it really didnt show.

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hunter   5-2-2010 18:35  Acceptance  +1   since like 2 weeks ago
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yash
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:30  Profile P.M. 
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US gov always press China to appreciate RMB so as to buy less chinese goods,thus protecting the domestic supplier

there is really nothing we can do,except making more money
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Eclipse
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:48  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #7 venetiangirls's post

RMB has been undervalued for a long time. This is not the first time the US govt is pressuring China to appreciate it. RMB has appreciated over the years, but not as much as it should if it was not under a fixed exchange rate. RMB appreciation does have to do with the current tensions because it is not something new at all. Just as the Taiwan issue is not something new either.
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venetiangirls
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Post at 5-2-2010 17:53  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #11 Eclipse's post

i understand it's not new but I just want to know whether they will be appreciating it by a lot or not. Article says undervalued by 40%. That's a big percentage. Getting mixed news all the time. last time one of the chairmans of china's economic policy went on cnn and said they will not appreicate it this year but maybe next. Now you got this article coming out saying it will likely appreicate. If it appreciates to 6.5 or even 6.2, then that's still OK. What if it appreciates to 5.5 or 5 for every dollar.
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Eclipse
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Post at 5-2-2010 18:23  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #12 venetiangirls's post

The article also says that the markets' expectations are that it will appreciate 2.8% over the next 12 months. There is no way China is going to do a big appreciation. They have not done so in the past and won't in the near future. Why would they want to hurt themselves for no reason? They are not the country that is in trouble and in a recession.
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Finn
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Post at 6-2-2010 02:23  Profile P.M. 
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sigh im losing money everyday now...
the euro is falling!!
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venetiangirls
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Post at 6-2-2010 06:28  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #14 Finn's post

your euro is falling and the RMB is appreciating. You're getting double whammied
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eddielee
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Post at 7-2-2010 02:37  Profile P.M. 
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pressure for yuan appreciation was much stronger, and more justified, 5 years ago. and even then they only revalued a bit -- less than 10% over a year, if i remember.
i really doubt they'll revalue anytime soon and even if they do, it won't be by very much. strongest case against revaluation would, as hunter pointed out, their $2 trillion+ in reserves.
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venetiangirls
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Post at 7-2-2010 05:54  Profile P.M. 
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Reply #16 eddielee's post

let's just hope that is the case
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pandaboy
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Post at 8-2-2010 03:43  Profile P.M. 
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From taking to the little guy on the ground (factory owners in southern China), if there was wide spread appreciation, the maufacturing sector would (again) go into a tail spin.  Factories are barely staying a float.

What is more interesting is whether in 2011 or 2012, if the property market collapses, what will happen to the chinese economy.  Most of Chinese GDP is investment in fixed assets (i.e. real estate), but real estate is a non-productive asset.  It is like buying gold.I have seen numbers theorizing that Chinese GDP is almost 75% fixed investments, and if that slows or goes to zero, you could even see the currency going the other way.  In other words, as the United States accelerates into growth and Europe stifles because of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, the USD could appreciaterelative to all major currencies including the RMB.

Long live king dollar!
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