Whatever the stated probability of catching AIDS from one encounter of unprotected sex with an HIV positive girl, and most experts say it is roughly 1/1000, those odds are calculated from observation of real infection rates among real people. And since that population of real people will manifest all of the complicating factors mentioned in the last few posts - possible cuts/abrasions on the penis, for instance - those factors have already been figured into that 1/1000 figure. Of course, if YOU are an individual with a cut on your dick, then yes, your chances of infection are higher. All the stats are saying is that the chances of having such a cut AND being unlucky enough to encounter an HIV positive girl who's shedding significant amounts of the virus are quite low.

That said, only a fool would consider the risk of catching Aids from one encounter of unprotected sex sufficiently low to justify going bareback. Always use a condom and the chances of infection are then sufficiently low that they can be safely ignored. We ignore very low probabilities of catastrophe in all of of our daily behaviors - like the chance of dying in a car accident - so it would be irrational to treat sex any differently. Thinking in terms of worst case scenarios can be a useful intellectual exercise; however, you'd never get out of bed in the morning if you tried to live your life as if those things would really happen to you.

Most of us in this forum ARE only having one encounter with these girls by the way.

Hahaha nice facts! Made me feel more secure doing it!

Any idea what the rates are for other STDs?

I got BBBJ at least 5 times in my life. I shouldn't be worried right?

That risk of getting HIV from vaginal sex, for a male, is 1 in 4 (2/3 for the female). HIV can take months, or in rare cases years, to show up. So, you could get a girl tested for HIV, and get a negative, even though she has it (but it has yet to develop). Always use a condom! If you want to use numbers to comfort yourself, feel free, but don't ask for flowers at your funeral.

If you want to reduce your risk of getting HIV when having sex, aside from using a condom, be GENTLE. HIV is transmitted through blood, not saliva, that's why you won't get HIV from kissing someone, and why gay men spread it faster (because the anus is not designed for sex, and tears extremely easily).

To wrap up, don't have anal sex, always wear a condom, and BE GENTLE with the girls!

Huh?!   

Those stats of yours are from what planet? I'd love to see some references to back up those startling figures; but while we're waiting, here is something from the real world to consider.

From: The Columbia University Handbook on HIV and AIDS

http://www.health.columbia.edu/pdfs/hiv_handbook.pdf

The best estimates that I've seen in the past, based on large population surveys I think, was that the risk of infection per encounter with an HIV infected partner was between 30-60% for plain old heterosexual intercourse.  Sorry, I don't remember if that was for the woman only or the man as well; since it's generally assumed that the receiving partner is at higher risk (one of the reasons that HIV was so easily spread in the male, gay population; a gay guy is both pitching and catching).

I wonder how that 1 in 10,000 stat plays in Uganda where over 1/3 of the population is infected?  At 1 in 10,000 the whole country would have to be fucking non-stop to get to 1/3 wouldn't they?

Anyway, I stopped looking at this stuff long ago so maybe the data has been updated.  Clearly no one is going to be able to do a clinical trial on this, but by using very large groups of patients and diligent research you start to get a more useful answer than Q&A with an online doc.

I tried to be polite with JustSex, but I have no more patience with this nonsense! That 30~60% figure is total bullshit. Am I the only one in these forums who believes in supplying references to back up my statements on transmission risk? Here are 2 more:


http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/ ... l-HIV-exposure.html

Unprotected anal intercourse is the riskiest sexual activity. The probability of HIV being transmitted from an HIV-infected man to his uninfected partner through a single act of unprotected anal intercourse is approximately 1 in 50 if the infected man is the insertive partner and 1 in 2000 if he is the receptive partner. (7) The risks associated with unprotected vaginal intercourse are relatively small as well: approximately 1 in 1000 for male-to-female transmission and 1 in 2000 for female-to-male transmission.

_______________________________________________________


http://books.google.com/books?id ... ials+By+Paul+E.+Sax

HIV Essentials By Paul E. Sax, Calvin J. Cohen, Daniel R. Kuritzkes

http://www.medhelp.org/posts/STD ... nal-sex/show/245456

H. Hunter Handsfield, M.D., Mar 01, 2005 12:00AM

"On average, it is believed the chance of HIV transmission during a single episode of unprotected vaginal sex is around one in 1000.  But it varies widely depending on sex (more efficient male to female), circumcision (higher risk for uncircumcised men), stage of HIV infection, presence of other STDs, and other factors.  In parts of Africa, the risk probably is higher on average--because all those factors and others are common.  But probably never higher than one chance in 100."

If the risks were as high as 30~60%, the question then becomes why isn't half the world's population HIV positive. Even the transmission rate for the fucking flu isn't 60% idiot.

And the figure mentioned was 1 in a 1000, not 1 in 10,000.

Maybe the chances are low but, even so, anyone who shags a WG without protection is being an idiot beyond belief. Much worse, you might then pass it on to a trusting non-WG partner, which is tantamount to murder in my book. I wouldn't be able to live with myself.

It remind us use condom everytime when we playing.
sometimes I use 2 condom when making love ,and this methond makes me last for a long period.

Don't forget the monkeys . . . simian HIV is where it all started . . . we have to quit having sex with the HIV infected monkeys too . . .

I think you'll find that it may increase the risk due to the friction created by the rubbing of two condoms during sex.  Some condom packets mention this.

from a site i was reading, the odds of tranmission of STD's is:
- 1/1000 chance of HIV infection from unprotected vaginal sex
- ~0% chance of HIV infection from oral sex
- 1/100 chance of HIV infection from anal sex (giver)
- 3/10 chance of Hep B infection from unprotected vaginal sex (get a Hep B vaccination guys!)
- 1/10 chance of Hep C infection from unprotected vaginal sex.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lis ... ult_prevalence_rate

some info about countries, HK and China very low........

a helpful STD table i found in the archives is attached

What archives?! Who drew up that chart? Is it a habit of yours to post things without knowing the source?

That your chart is unreliable is shown by the fact that it assigns to cunnilingus a high risk of HIV infection, but only a medium risk of catching Herpes! However, every recognized authority in the field, and all epidemiological studies of the oral transmission of the HIV virus, state that the real risk is so low as to be virtually nonexistent, certainly vastly lower than the risk of catching Herpes via oral sex.

The above inaccuracy shows that the chart was drawn up for ideological reasons, i.e., to shape behavior by scaring people, rather than give an objective assessment of the real risk associated with each activity.

[ Last edited by  Marsupial at 15-1-2010 12:18 ]

What i'm wondering is -- apart from HIV, there are so many other STDs that i'd never wish on anyone....these can be contracted by mere touch...how then do so many here talk of DATY and kissing etc...isn't that so dangerous?

I always fuck with a dom and after hearing that a fellow bro got the clap from a sauna girl (don't ask me which sauna and which girl) i now dont event get a bbbj. Not worth the worry.

Anyone can easy to assess general risk of contracting aids by comparison of HIV rates in a given poplulation.  In the United States, there are about 100,000 caucasian women with aids (200,000 for black women).  The most reliable sources for this type of information is the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which is part of the
United States Department of Health and Human Resourses, followed by Journal of the American Medical Association (AMA) which is the chief source for published medical
material.  Another excellent souce which summarizes much of the CDC data (and some AMA data) is the Kaiser Foundation (kff.org).  

The gross US population is about 300 million, and about one-half (150 million) are women.  As easily determined, the random chance of encountering a white woman with
HIV is about 1/1500.  The odds of contracting HIV from an infected white women is very low because tranmission (woman to man) is very difficult and it usually requires
repeated exposure.  A great source in this area is Fumento, "The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS," which the AMA regards as the "Best single source to enable heterosexual
persons to assess personal risk."  Fumento suggests that the chances of contracting HIV though heterosexual contact is considerably less than the chances of being struck by
lightning or being attacked by a shark.

Of course, these are United States statistics, but the rates of infection in the US are about the same as in China.

There is a lot of concern about HIV/AIDS.  People should be much more concerned about Hepatitis C (very high chance
of transmission) and herpes.

Anytime I read a statement like that, I know that this is a person not worth listening to.  

If bros want to learn about STDs, they should start here:

http://www.cdc.gov/std/