Since we always suit up for sex, in fact, it doesn't make any difference at all.

But that 1 in 20,00 number is no more definitive than the 1 in a million stat. It all depends on what % of HK's WGs are HIV positive. My personal feeling, and it is just a feeling, is that far less than 1% of the local WGs are HIV positive. In which case the twenty thousand quote might well be too conservative.

Of course a WG is much more likely than a non-WG to be HIV positive.

Look, people seem to be misunderstanding my original post, so let me reduce this down to the basics.

hkboy gave hard figures for the odds of catching AIDS from one instance of unprotected vaginal sex with any girl.

He based his conclusions on something written by a certain Dr Hook.

My point was that hkboy's numbers were not consistent with what Hook had written. hkboy's figures would have been correct only if every girl was HIV positive - something that we can all agree is absurd.

OK? That was the main point I wanted to get across.

To illustrate what I meant, I then went on to say that "if, for instance," only 1 in a thousand WGs are HIV positive, then, given Hook's figures, the odds of becoming infected are not 1 in 2000, as hkboy wrote, but less than 1 in a million. (I used WGs because, when talking about HIV, WGs are what interest us here in the forum.) To illustrate my point, I could, just as easily, have assumed that 1 in 50 HK WGs are HIV positive. The 1/1000 thing was just an example. Does everyone understand that - it was just an example. In no way did I intend to assert that only 0.1% of HK's WGs are HIV positive. My personal feeling, and it is just a feeling, is that far less than 1% of HK's WGs are HIV positive, but no one can know the real percentage, because no one has ever done a medical survey. And without exact numbers, it is impossible to give exact odds.

[ Last edited by  Marsupial at 25-6-2008 04:54 ]

That's exactly what I knew would happen - many people will just see the bottom line - one-in-a-million.  

Not everybody reads our posts as carefully as we do.  

You do have to speculate on the reliability of these figures though.  How could they come up with the figure of 1 in 1000 or any figure for that matter?  Its not like they can get a infected WG and get 1000 guys to all gang bang her annabel chong style.  I don't believe the figure to be all that accurate and before you go into the whole its come up by experts and I know nothing in comparison to STDs, it just seems like a complete generalisation when too many factors are involved.

Its like coming up with a general statistic on the likelyhood of you being hit by a car while crossing the road.  This would all depend on where you are, which road you're crossing, time of day etc.  Theres too many factors to take into account just to come up with 1 general statistic.

So I disagree, these "hard" figures aren't reliable especially when the more important factor of all is whether the WG is infected in the 1st place.

Let me get this straight, are you're saying that one can only catch AIDS from an HIV positive girl?! My God man, I think you've managed to discover the weak point of this sneaky disease! I feel so stupid, the answer was there all along staring me right in the face!   So rather than prattle on about odds, all we need do is not have sex with HIV positive girls! Could this be the end of the AIDS epidemic?!

You're right bro; but we have to identify all the infected bitches and mark them in some way - say a brand on
the forehead - INFECTED. Then we'll all be safe to fuck without having to worry about AIDS. Genius.  

I'm thinking ... 'Nobel Prize'   

    

annoying brother no.4,5 & 6. FUCK YOU VERY MUCH.

Keep this up and I'll hang you by your balls !

Whilst we are on this topic, i might as well ask too.
I saw somewhere that herpes can be contracted by body to body contact. In what way does that work?
This is going to sound so naive, but naive i am, if someone has an active herpe, would it be possible to catch it just by shaking their hand?
(this sounds almost as naive as can u get pregnant by kissing. haha)

Sorry, sex education isn't getting enough funding where I'm from. Kindly explain without using statistics and drifting away from the point since you've seem to have forgotten to include your explanation in your helpful post

[ Last edited by  cantgetenough at 25-6-2008 00:24 ]

u are sick fcuk bro............either u go do your thing and get laid or shovel your ass

I read this somewhere as well........can be contacted thru sweat or saliva.......but dunno how true.......

I saw in this movie Whispers and Moans by Anthena Chu Yan, where she contracted with STD and dare not touch or hug her child....something like that..

but then let the expert handle this ...

If the event that you are reading this thread to learn something about the probability of catching a nasty from a WG, I would recommend this thread as well, which has some references to web-sourced 3rd-party info.  

http://forum.sex141.com/eforum/v ... a=page%3D6#pid50811

Stats like that are like the numbers on winning at a slot machine or making money on pai gow.  Someone "wins" every day, the question is will you be that guy?

Example:  if the HIV numbers (unprotected, single penetrating sex act with an HIV positive person) is 1 in 1000 in general, there are a ton of things that can change that number around, making it better or worse.

Example:  Did you shave your nutsack recently?  Perhaps a little cut or abrasion?   Did the girl just gve you a BJ with a little teeth that maybe scraped or scored your skin?   Perhaps are you going to keep doing past the point where she starts to dry out a bit, causing friction and perhaps making red areas on your dick?   Any one of those would greatly increase you chances of infection.

While HIV is the public reason why everyone should wear a condom for pretty much everything, there are plenty of other STDs that are out there, and as others have mentioned, require nothing more than contact or a little friction to make the trade.   Even with a condom on, public hair to public hair contact is enough to give the critters a chance to move house.  

So really, you cannot play the "odds" game an expect to keep winning, because some people win at pai gow on their very first hand.  1 in 1000 means ANY of those thousand, not the 1000th time.

I deal with probabilities for a living, so I'm at home with Marsupial's statements -- including the fact that his calculated odds are driven by his assumptions.  But I think it would be hard to argue against the proposition that the odds of catching HIV from one incidence of unprotected sex is very low.  The severity of the outcome, of course, is extreme.  The odds of catching herpes is much higher, but herpes is much less of a health issue.  Nonetheless, on an expected basis, counting both likelihood and severity of outcome, we may have more to fear from herpes than HIV.

But this all has to do with a single incidence of unprotected sex.  I would argue that there are very few men (or women) who engage in single acts of unprotected sex.  Someone who is willing to have unprotected sex once will almost certainly be willing to have it again (unless, of course, it is a complete accident).  Getting tested and coming up negative -- which is really the most likely result -- merely reinforces the illusion of invulnerability.  So I would argue that men or women who engage in unprotected sex probably do so quite often.

While the odds of infection from one incidence may be quite low, the odds of infection from repeated incidences can get quite high.  From the small probabilities associated with a single incidence, it would be easy to conclude that the risks of unprotected sex are small.  Depending on one's view of "small" we can all debate that point.  For repeated incidence, however, the risks get much larger and would probably be well in the range in which the vast majority of us would consider the risks to be "large" and inadvisable.

Don't forget we aren't even including risk factors that might increase or decrease the chance that hiv might be transferred.

For example, cuts inside mouth/on yr cock (god forbid).

Also if a girl is sucking yr cock for a few good minutes rather than hours then the chances will increase due to prolonged use etc.

It's really quite hard to determine the actual risk.


e.g if i slide my cock into a hiv+ wg's pussy 5 times but you do it 100+ then you will have a higher chance to getting infected compared to me...all things being equal etc.

Anyway this topic is interesting and good to show everybody is interested in their and their bro's safety which is cool

but to actually calculate risk is very difficult considering the factors.

im really surprised....

i cant believe that its a 1/1000 chance.

Yes i know the statistical complexities of this math but I've always been on the safe side and had protected sex. Since school was the only last time I was bombarded with HIV info, I was always under the impression that it was a much higher %, like 25% if the person was HIV positive, which was why there is such a big deal of using condoms.

these stats are for one time. when you sleep with someone hiv positive day after day the risk goes up. 1 in 1,000 becomes 365 in 1,000 if you do it everyday.

seriously, 1/1000 is very scary...

One of the things guys tend to forget is that abrasions on your cock (like from vigorous fucking, or even irritation from a condom being too tight and rubbing) may be enough to allow the flow of the virus from one to another.  It's one of the reasons to avoid toothy blowjobs!  ;)