I THINK what you mean is there are two possible outcomes - you catch it, or you don't.
That's not how most people talk about 50/50 though. Most people talk about 50/50 like tossing a coin: i.e. if you flip it (say) 100 times, you will get both heads and tails in roughly equal proportions, and the more times you flip it the closer the proportion will be.
But if I understand your point, you are saying that the probability of the outcome is only part of the process of making a decision - which I agree. The consequences of the outcome are also important. Downside and upside can make even a long shot worth taking, or a dead cert best to avoid.
BTW thx for the backhanded compliment ...