I keep reading that China has already started to come out of its recession.
Those of you in HK/China feeling this is true?
are prices for hotels/restaurants etc going up now?
are the stores more crowded now? more factories opening up?

I have been living in the suburb of GZ for the last year. I was just talking to my mates here that i notice i see more migrate worker here the last  month and most of the factory is hiring. I think is getting better, not sure out of it yet.

I think when there's talk of the 'recovery' it's just that the general feel of the economy is not as glum as before. This is not to say that the price of commodities will go up and sales of luxury goods are shooting thru the roof.
I guess if you track the Hang Seng Index, you will see it has been generally going up in the last six month window but it's still some way from it's height of the previous year..
I think until the US gets back up on its feel it's unlikely that we will see a 'full recovery'. yes, China is a huge economy but a significant proportion of it's income will be coming from the western world purchasing its oil and manufactured goods.
I don't know what the other bros here think?

China has oil? After converting money gas price in china is more expensive that north America.

oh yeah, china has oil and natural gas all right. much of it in the xinjiang province. think
geographically it has to do with the fact that xinjiang is located in the mineral rich
central asia region where many of the neighbouring countries are endowed with
such natural resources.

Its more like China's government is spending the billions of USD reserves it holds , as Obama and the Fed are effectively printing their way out of the economic problems , TRILLIONS are being printed , hence better to spend it than be left with a bunch of worthless paper.

Its like Europe which in a heap of shit because the UK is in a heap of shit, Germany may well have a exports based economy but if the UK buys a large proportion of its goods who is Germany going to sell to?.


The UK and US 'recoveries' aren't recoveries at all they are stimuli from printed money the second you stop the printing we go back to where we were in the recession. Problem is you print too much and you go Zimbabwe (or Ming Dynasty for you history buffs).

....or Russia in the second world war...(back in the days in History lessons), I seem to remember that at one point they had a basket full of Roubles and that was worth less that a loaf of bread...
Imagine how much money you'd need to go to a walk up or HG?!

for you history buffs, after the end of WW1 the allies with the Treaty of Versailles,  stuck it to Germany in such a bad way that the German gov't tried to print their way out of the economic problems caused by having to pay huge reparations to the Allies, causing massive inflation to the point that the economy collapsed and Adolf Hitler was able to swan his way into power...
PRINTING MONEY IS DANGEROUS!

US recovery?
Its still pretty bad here.
unemployment is still going up every month but at a slower pace.
I would not call that a recovery.

Many people are expecting it to be a double-dip recession, definately no V shape recovery.

Its why I put recovery in inverted commas , ie we on both sides of the pond are having 'jobless recoveries' ie there are still tons of people unemployed and more and more people getting unemployed. I think its fake.

But various indicators are showing a false recovery , ie the FTSE (UK) is back at the 5000 mark when in March it was down to 3000 , the NYSE dropped to huge lows and now appears to have 'recovered' to the 10,000 mark.

I think we are replaying 1930 again in that the 1929 crash was BIG , but the amount of money lost in 1929 is miniscule compared to the money that was lost in the following years as people incorrectly thought it had hit bottom hence even worse a multi dip recession where people call the bottom too soon.

The HSBC CEO stated that he is expecting the second dip in the world economy, and HSBC will be expanding very cautiously.

from what I hear export oriented businesses are still feeling the effects, but the domestic market is fine and even flying higher with the government's stimulus package and upcoming building events like asian games 2010, Shanghai world expo, etc. Guangzhou alone is adding 5,yes five! new subway lines next year. And infrastructure is still being rushed everywhere - from hotels, highways, bridges, etc. Overall, China is doing ok through this recession.

Dongguan, being an export-oriented place, is hurting though. EVERYBODY says, they see much less traffic on the roads there, and much less trucks hauling shipping containers around.

Changping, being in dongguan, is probably hurting a bit too. Isn't that just the perfect opportune time for guys like us??

A lot of countries like China are "hedging" by moving some reserves to Euros as they see the value of the US$ decline. Oil deals were once exclusively in US$ but the Euro is gaining use which is further driving down the US$. You have to purchase the currency first to buy the oil.

I've also read that China is buying resources like iron ore to stockpile for security and to be in an a better bargaining position in the future. Probably a wise use of US$ reserves in a declining currency status.

The USA has huge debts but drives 25% of the world's economy so it enjoys a unique position where the world cannot afford for the US economy to fail (at least for the foreseeable future). The US is a rich country though and can generate huge future income to pay its debts. An interesting fact too is that the USA's debts are all in US$, another unique position, which means as its currency devalues its debts do too in real terms (unlike the countries in history lessons that carried debts in foreign currencies).

The UK is a different matter, it was hit hard by the GFC and whilst I believe it will recover, it may never be to the level it enjoyed relative to other countries pre GFC. I agree with some Bros above who think we aren't out of the woods yet, unemployment is the "wave" the economists fear the most.

Some countries are definitely better off than others. I know China has been impacted by the GFC but it still has huge domestic growth, with huge domestic savings to fund such growth. Although China is "booming" it is still way to small to generate trade/growth benefits to soften the GFC for the global players, however Australia's economy is being well buffered by China's growth and continued need for resources.

Heh its why Iran wants nuclear power , means they can export more oil in Euros and make the US$ go down the toilet.

But regarding the UK , the UK is toast, we don't even have an economy in the UK , we produce nothing significant , we have no significant resources , we have nothing anybody wants.

the US is markedly different they have the midwest huge grain fields , masses of resources and a fair bit of industry.


The UK has NOTHING bar delusions of granduer of a by gone age , heh the first time I went to HK in 2008 all the WGs wanted to come to the UK, second time less wanted to come ,3rd time none of them wanted to come as they called it

"poor chan kok kar"

OMG, I'm shattered. Uneducated prostitutes no longer want to move to the UK. I guess that must truly mean the UK's days of glory are finally over.

The UK was toast since 1945. Basically handed over the keys of the world to the cousins across the water. More than that, we lost
our savings and current accounts when Empire was dismantled.

The only thing the wider world needed from the UK was a capitalist haven for a good 50 years thereafter. And then, the USSR
self-destructed and with China becoming increasingly capitalist, there is nothing for the UK to trade on anymore.

Now, the GBP ain't worth a piss. People have been harping on how the USD has been in a spiralling decline but not many
talk about (it isn't even worth economic discussion!) how the GBP has gone to the boonies.

And that is why we need to move back to HK! (not to mention that out hobby is cheaper over here and even more to explore across the border!)

If we start seeing more western girls coming to HK to work, then that would signal that life back in their home country is getting very tough.

I would think so, even the US is "starting" to come out of the recession, I believe since it's the first time the Dow has reached 10,000 points since last year, in Oct...