Doesn't the stock market seem quite inflated in spite of COVID-19 pandemic?  Dow is at 24K with over 30 million Americans unemployed. Anyone sense another big dip?  What's this BS about a vaccine coming out soon?  Just hype or is this for real?

Your thoughts?

I have some real duds on this list, but I did hit the jackpot with ACB, Canadian cannabis stock!  Skyrocketed today on positive news of beating earnings estimates.

I mostly invested into oil. Good dividends and pretty good price. I’m sure the price of oil will go up as the country reopens. My tech stocks are continuously going up but low/no dividends. I’m hoping to double my oil stocks. Also invested into Visa.

If anyone is still hunting, TESLA is looking to join S&P 500. The Q2 earnings will come after the bell on Wednesday and a GAAP profit might just be the final thing that puts TSLA in the S&P. Yeah, the stock has really climbed a lost in the past few months, but they have done significant cost cutting and might just avoid any red ink even during this shitty time.

# If it does join the SP 500, they will be a lot of money flowing into TSLA because of all the IRAs and 401k accounts (and the likes) that are contractually bound to replicate the SP 500 performance.

I am interested to get into the stockmarkets.

Can anyone advise me how to start? go through my bank and how to research where to put the money?

The market has been crazy lately. Just waiting for the down tick so that I can pump some, but it having a real good run. Wish I had made that decision in March last week which was the best time

I am in this same position of moving to cash. The market is at all time highs, especially after the economic nuke Trump has dropped. Given some time, the market will come down again. I recommend perhaps following a dollar cost averaging strategy. Month by month, invest x amount of dollars into your portfolio. If the market goes up, invest X - some %. If the market goes down, invest X + some %. Obviously this is a long term strategy, and probably safer, although there are no guarantees in life except death and taxes

it s quite inflated, i would want to buy anything that isnt undervalued, even apple has a buy rating of 100 usd.

Hello finance bros,

Is the sell off happening again? If so, are you pulling out?


Personally, I sold off my assets. If it goes back up, I lose a few hundred dollars. If it goes down, I can buy back a lot more.

I thought I would do a quick follow up to my April report on the US economy. I had my six-month briefing and things are better but still far from being good.  As you may have seen the US stock market has been going up and down throughout October as the election cycle comes to a close.  The New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 and the Nasdeq have all been fairly strong despite the unemployment rate high of 14.7% in April to 8.4% in August, the hospitality industry devastated and in COVID-19 wave 2 or 3 depending on which state you are in and which statistics you look at.  

The US Stock markets are all future gains.  Investors are trying to predict gains and losses into the future based on their own investment timelines.  Stocks have been floated heavily by the technology sector.  There has been a shift on these stock markets pulling on and off companies already from their listings.  And, there is the US Federal Reserve Bank whose priority is to make enough liquidity available to stop the stock market from crashing again.  Its swift actions in March and April has held the stock markets together all through the summer and fall.

The US Federal Reserve Bank has been buying corporate, state, municipal, and foreign debt to the tune of $2.3 trillion and likely will buy more.  It has kept interest so low it is unlikely to rise anytime soon.  There is concern about massive inflation but that seems unlikely.  About 90% of the world business transactions uses the US dollar, so there is a lot of dollars floating globally in physically and in electronic transfers.  US debt has matched GDP, which on surface looks a like a problem, but there are countries like Japan (3rd largest economy) and Singapore (3rd largest GDP per capita) which are both over 200% debt to GDP, and the US can keep printing money with less inflation impacts then both those countries.

Like the rest of the world, US hospitality has seen about 23% losses total, but depending on which state you are in that can be as high as 50%.  Other industry notable losses from April to August are information technology 10%, professional and business services at 6% and education and healthcare at 5%.  This again varies from state to state.  With telecommuting being used at such high levels and the closer of restaurants and retail, at some point there will be a commercial property valuation adjustment.  Some of the adjustment in remote working that we have acclimated to be permanent way even with a COVID-19 vaccine or therapeutic.  People with means are leaving the big cities to move to less dense communities which will result in residential housing and rentals shifting up and down in price over the next year.

The August US GDP forecasts from the various economists are:- Federal Reserve is at -6.5%, Wall Street Journal’s survey average is -4.2%, the Economist is -5.4%, Goldman Sachs is -6.5%, and Morgan Stanley is -3.4%.  The 2021 forecasts is the Federal Reserve is at 5.0%, Wall Street Journal’s survey average is 4.0%, the Economist is 4.0%, Goldman Sachs is 6.2%, and Morgan Stanley is 6.4%.  This is far from being etched in stone.  This can all change again depending on COVID-19 infections, what the US and other countries do on future stimulus, the decision of countries’ central banks and when a therapy or therapeutic is developed.

Other than China, which is projecting positive GPD growth by the end of 2020, expect all countries’ economies to continue to struggle.  This is a constantly changing fluid situation on a global level.  Stock market speculation will continue as it always does.  You can expect wide shifts daily.  However, the US Federal Reserve will do everything it to ensure enough liquidity to keep a collapse we saw in late March.  Post US elections, there will be some form of a stimulus package coming out of DC.  Nearly every US economist agree that there needs to be another direct infusion of federal money directly into both the general economy and state governments.

Several years ago, my investment position 90% changed to physical gold,
not ETFs. There are no regrets given the current and past several years
of uncertainty. Meanwhile, I wait.

jeffzeke, I am curious why you chose Boeing but omitted Raytheon [RTX]?
The former is continuing to shift significant manufacturing segments from
Washington state to S.C. which is a very positive longterm move. The
Washington state labour unions have not been very cooperative in recent
decades. Raytheon has an excellent market presence which is expanding
due to the numerous rapidly increasing regional political "instabilities."

Macy's is dying.
Aurora Cannabis (ACB), a very reasonable investment. John Denver optional . . . Noooooo, PLEASE!!
Wynn Resorts (WYNN), sticky for the near future. Should recover.

American Airlines . .  back in the 1980-1990 era, they were a top shelf airline,
just like Cathay. Their current service is garbage [on a sunny day], they routinely
loose baggage and are generally rude on virtually everything. Many CX customers
will NOT fly AA [including me] and willingly forego the mileage/points to avoid the
AA bespoke FUBACOR experience . . . just for you!
Terrible investment, krap management.

Halliburton (HAL), good company, needs another Iraq to blossom. Unlikely to happen.
Bank of America (BAC), a competently run company. Longterm investment only.

Curious why no mention of mining stocks? Water, minerals and rare earths [not Chinese]
are all good long term positions.

=====================
To address the vaccine comment:

The anti-viral vaccines are tricky, at best.

The Swine Flu vaccine caused more deaths than swine flu itself . . . oops.
The SARs vaccine cost billions of USD without yielding a viable vaccine. Someone made a lot of $$$$$.

The CV-19 vaccine: whilst many are in the research/development and/or field testing stage, how many
to date have been administered that (1) worked AND (2) did not have serious side effects? Answer: zero.

Will there be a viable CV-19 vaccine? Unlikely.

On 13 July 2020, the CDC admitted in its document, “CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel”
on Page 39, in the section titled, “Performance Characteristics” the following:

“Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available, assays [diagnostic tests] designed for
detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA."

Translation: the CDC does not have a sample [isolate] of CV-19.

If no sample,
(1) how are you making an accurate and reliable RT-PCR diagnostic panel?*
(2) how are you manufacturing a vaccine?  

* In 1993, Dr. Kary Mullis [biochemist] won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his invention of "the PCR method."
Dr. Mullis was very clear the PCR test was to be used ONLY for Research and NOT for Diagnostic purposes.

The current worldwide usage of the PCR test is for Diagnostic purposes.
This usage has failed to satisfy Koch's Postulate.

[ Last edited by  chaudement at 28-10-2020 16:25 ]

Interestingly, I probably would go for stocks that benefit from the lockdowns... FAANG remain good picks imo. Even if they look expensive now I think they look much more attractive if looking at earnings a few years out..

market is too high now. i am waiting for beyond mea tto reach 98 again to buy in

Trust, just waiting for it to be 98, its a small risk, probably only place 1000 usd with it when its 98. even pilgrims is making veggie stuff now.

any of you doing stocks in the hongkong stock exchange, purchased a few china telecoms?

Guys, do have any recommended broker for options trading? I was looking into IBKR and TDA.

Is anyone buying any pre-merger SPACS?
I feel there is really no downside to picking a pre-merger SPAC launched by big name investors like Bill Ackman or Chamath . . .or am I missing something?

(I have only been on this forum for an year. . . is it acceptable replying to old threads like this one?)

Why would you think the stock market is crashing anyways ? You never know in advance when it goes up or down. Best to just keep adding money to a passive portfolio every month. Here is a good video about this topic : https://youtu.be/RKkbb5AUYeY

Just keep adding to the portfolio and let your money grow and work for you

pre-merger SPAC is really a bet on management team.... personally I bought HAAC - alot of the team from Livongo. Those of you in healthcare should be familiar... worth taking a look

you were spot on with tesla! Stock of the year 2020. This year it's not moving as good I read a lot of Tesla's sales slowing in China. Probably not the best stock for this year