I was planning to do a first time STD check. So i visit a website on Medhelp to access my risk. It is the largest online doctor community.  You have to pay US$15 for doctors to answer your forum post. The two doctor attending the STD Community question is a researcher for STD for 20 years and had multiple professional publication on STDs.

Just did some search on STD protected and unprotected sex.  All the results and doctor commendations are the same.

http://www.medhelp.org/posts/show/518636
http://www.medhelp.org/posts/show/503681
http://www.medhelp.org/posts/show/249252

The Odds of HIV transmission from Single exprosure protected Sex  = NIL
THe Odds of HIV transmission from Single exposure Unprotected Sex = 1/2000
THe Odds of HIV transmission from unprotected Blowjob = 1/10000
THe Odds of HIV transmission from protected Blowjob = NIL
THe Odds of HIV transmission from handjob = NIL (The odds of being struck by lighting is higher)

That makes me wonder how HIV for heterosexual men are transferred.  Highest risk Anal and multiple exposure to the same HIV partner.

But dont start breathing some fresh air.

Gonorrhea and Herpes is the most common transmission of STD. There are acquired from just mere skin to skin rubbing.  

Gonnorhea can be cured easily but Herpes is acquired for life and can be transmitted to your partner causing birth defects.

Check out Genital herpes images on Yahoo. There are 2 types of Herpes, one occured in the mouth HSV-1 and one from genitals HSV-2.

Pardon my silly questions from older post.   We shouldnt be stupid enough to turn a few minutes of enjoyment to a regret for life.

Cheers

[ Last edited by  hkboy141 at 20-6-2008 11:43 ]

How about word of wisdom from Bro Marsupial.

MArs is going to like you now for quoting the phrase " the odd being struck by lightning is higher".........

are u fuckin sure?seems to be a low risk... i thought it would be in the 1/100 range...

There is a fundamental flaw in your assessment of risk. Your calculations assume that each instance of sex is with someone infected with the AIDS virus, which is clearly not the case.

Your Doctor Hook said as much with:

  "1. First, you do not know that she had HIV (or any other STD for that matter). Most commercial sex workers do not.
   2. If she was infected with HIV, your risk from unprotected vaginal sex is less than 1 in 1,000, and from unprotected oral sex is less than 1 in 10,000."

Therefore if, for instance, only one in a thousand WGs is HIV positive to begin with, the risk of becoming infected is then:

less than 1 in 1 million from a single instance of unprotected vaginal sex with a randomly chosen WG
less than 1 in 10 million from one unprotected blowjob from a randomly chosen WG

[ Last edited by  Marsupial at 21-6-2008 00:53 ]

fcuk me........all this statistical computation really get me nuts....

Well...Mars...impress with your analysis as usual.....

Bro Mars!....  im just curious if you are a statistician?? or Mathematician?

As to heterosexual transmission I have often wondered if a lot of it may come from unprotected anal as well.  It is not like gays have a monopoly on anal sex.  Heterosexuals have also occasional been known to give this a try as well.

I tend to think Mars is a doctor lol

well I'm a medical student... and the only constructive criticism is this: "Hobbying is a game of Russian Roulette, a negligible chance does not equate to no chance. Some one will get shot eventually... but then the bullets are pretty large in this case, so how you dodge the bullet depends on how safe you hobby."

Play safe, enough said.

Wow, only 1 in a million chance of catching HIV from a WG while having unprotected sex. So lets all go bareback.  

Mars, if any of the bros here are stupid enough to listen to your bullshit, I hope your concience won't worry you if [when] one of them catches AIDS.  

And people are actually speculating that you're a statistician, mathematician, even a doctor. Jesus H. Christ. You're obviously some artsty, fartsy guy who wouldn't
understand a scientific concept if it bit you on the ass.         

I in a million? - I look forward to reading Mars' report on his next bareback session with a WG.  

P.S. Mars' figures may be correct if we're talking about sex with GFs. But we're talking about sex with WGs - a high risk group.

[ Last edited by  Jake at 22-6-2008 14:29 ]

Who the fuck said that I wanted anyone to go bareback??!! My post was based solely on the figures quoted by hkboy. Talking only about HIV, his Dr Hook stated that:

"If she was infected with HIV, your risk from unprotected vaginal sex is less than 1 in 1,000, and from unprotected oral sex is less than 1 in 10,000." (And that obviously applies to any girl, WG or not.)

hkboy concluded from this that:

"THe Odds of HIV transmission from Single exposure Unprotected Sex = 1/2000"

That is incorrect. hkboy's figures would be accurate only if every WG was HIV positive! I wrote that if only 1 in a 1000 WGs was HIV positive (a reasonable assumption?) and Dr Hook wasn't mistaken about the transmission rate, then the real risk of becoming infected was not 1 in 2000, but less than 1 in 1 million.

That's just math Jake. My only contribution was to assume that only 0.1% of HK's WGs are HIV positive. If you disagree with my calculations, stop spitting and show me where I went wrong. I always use a condom, as you fucking well know, and have never advised anyone to go bareback.

But I'm not going to lie to anyone about the real risks because I think they're too stupid to act responsibly/intelligently if given an accurate assessment of the possibility of catching something.

Feel free to use more conservative assumptions if you want. Assume that 1% of HK's WGs are HIV positive, and say that the chances of HIV transmission from one instance of unprotected vaginal sex with an HIV positive girl are less than 1 in 200. The math then dictates that the odds of catching HIV from one instance of domless vagsex with a random WG are less than 1 in 20,000. You may not like the way some idiot might interpret this mathematically irrefutable fact, but don't blame me for not playing the hysterical mother hen.

And guys, stop with the Dr/mathematician stuff. I'm neither, and it's pissing Jake off.

[ Last edited by  Marsupial at 23-6-2008 14:23 ]

Yes, you can forget about the Dr/mathematical statistic. If you take your time to read more about the site on STD. (but i know most wont since they are more interest in porn stories reports than health concern).  Most patients still doubt themselves clean even after doctors assurance of thousands or millions of odds.  Anxiety, regret or guilt that causing symptoms that theyre trying to relate to HIV.  And the waiting time of  6-12 weeks for testing is killing them.

If you read the latter half of my original post. The most concern we can get from sex workers are Gonnorhea, syphillis and Herpes. They dont show any symptoms at a window of 1 to 2 years.  Its something that doctors recommend we all to have STD checkups every year.

Whats the points of post? Just to make sure we dont bring home the bacon to our GFs and loves ones.

Perhaps your problem with my post is that you don't understand how odds are calculated. Right then - back to school for our petulant Englishman; in a large population, if 1 in 100 people is named Jake, and if 1 in 100 Jakes has a Big Boy Okamoto hidden away in a pocket, the chances of any randomly chosen individual being a Jake with a stashed Okamoto are 1/100 multiplied by 1/100 or 1 in 10,000. Understand? There, now you know enough math to make a positive contribution to this thread.

Since the math is written is stone, if you don't agree with my figures, you must think that the underlying assumptions are mistaken. Stop screaming and tell us what you think. First, what % of HK's WGs do you think are likely to be HIV positive? Second, what do you think the odds of HIV transmission are from one encounter of unprotected vaginal sex with an HIV positive girl. Those are the only relevant facts. Multiply the two figures together and give us your answer. Only then can we have an intelligent discussion on this topic. Otherwise please STFU.

And spare me the hysterical rant about how I'm sending innocent guys to a horrible death. As I've stressed a hundred times on this forum, always wear a condom. The chances of winning the lottery are slim indeed, but someone always draws the winning number. This is not DATY we're talking about here, no one need make any great sacrifices, sex with a dom can still be great sex.

Was that clear, or was it too artsy, fartsy for you?

Not true. As you write later in the same post:


'Only contribution ..?' That 'contribution' provides HALF the data and changes hkboy's figure of one-in-a-thousand
to your figure of 'one-in-a-million'. Quite a sizeable contribution, I'd say. And just where does your figure of 0.1%
come from? Don't worry, that's a rhetorical question because I know it came straight out of the top of your head
without a single shred on data to support it. But hey, who cares - throw out any figure you want - as you confrm,
your not a statistician, mathematician or doctor. But that still doesn't stop you throwing up your ridiculous figure of
one-in-a-million. And, worst of all, people might actually believe you. Then why wear a condom? You can't have it
both ways as you seem to think - throw out the ... one-in-a-million chance, but then urge everyone to always wear
a condom.

One common theme that I read in websites about AIDS is ... quote - HIV is such a complex virus that it's easy
to get confused when all the numbers are thrown about... unquote.

Well, obviously it's not complex or confusing to Mars - 1,000 x 1000 = 1,000,000. Seems simple enough, what's the
big problem? Let's look at that figure another way. Take a sample of 1,000 guys each visiting a prostitute and having
unprotected sex twiceAweek, every week for 10 years. According to Mars, only one of those 1,000 guys is likely
to catch AIDS in that 10-year period. Does anyone really believe that? If you do, go to the Internet and read some of
the many sites that provide information on the high incidence of AIDS in prostitutes and their customers. What makes
HK so different, so special and so immune? The incidence in HK is low because we're educated to use condoms - let's
keep it that way. There was an article just recently about the high number of truck drivers that were catching AIDS
from prostitutes at truckstops in China due to not using condoms. One-in-a-million? You gotta be kidding.  

My problem is with people who know nothing, but pretend that they know something. They're the ones that should
STFU. Mars, what you're telling people is highly irresponsible on a forum about sex with prostitutes.

Jake and Mars, you know what, with both of you here, it is more useful reading the forum than attending a university!

you both should be awarded as 141 mentor with lifetime membership.

You base your entire rant on what you fear without providing any facts other than some magazine article that talks about Mainland truck drivers. And yes, I would think that the 20 RMB/shot prostitutes who service Mainland truck drivers who demand domless sex, are more likely to be HIV positive.

Getting back to my original post, I purposely paced that 'if' in bold type to emphasize that what followed was only speculation. So of course it comes from off the top of my head. I never pretended otherwise. Didn't I make that clear to everyone when I wrote, "Therefore if, for instance, only one in a thousand WGs is HIV positive to begin with, the risk of becoming infected is then:"  Does that say that it is a fact that only 0.1% of HK's WGs are HIV positive? The post, framed as an if/then assumption, was just a thought experiment. Was that lost on you?

But as I pointed out in post #11, even if you use highly conservative assumptions about HIV incidence and transmission rates, the odds are still only 1 in 20,000. My thinking has always been that 1 in a million or 1 in twenty thousand, it would still be foolish to tempt fate. I was only interested in examining the likely odds of HIV transmission. My post was in no way a recommendation on how one should act. Go back and read that post, did I offer any advice on condom use?

So who is this Marsupial who advises people not to use condoms? Your problem is you show no respect for the intelligence of others, you assume that given the low odds (which is an acknowledged scientific fact regardless of your hysteria) everyone is going to demand bareback sex from these girls. What's the point of running around screaming, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"?!

As a matter of principle, one should always wear a condom. I have said this repeatedly here in the forums. You act as if I'm trying to kill off gullible site members.

[ Last edited by  Marsupial at 24-6-2008 00:39 ]

" You act as if I'm trying to kill off gullible site members "

on a lighter note, that actually might not be a bad idea !!!    

Yeah; one in 20,000 or one-in-a-million; not much difference I suppose.  

Are WGs mentioned? I thought hkboy141's statistics referred to any individual. Mars is quite correct in multiplying the odds the way he did, but if we talk about WGs only, I think the odds will come back down some...

Cunnin, are u a professor as well? You look like one........especially the eel....