yazoo
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30-5-2015 08:23 |
I was looking at this site http://math.stackexchange.com/qu ... have-a-49-95-chance
The question on the site was what are the odds of losing 20 times in a row when the probability of winning is 49.95%. The answer given was the formula:
(1-Probability of winning)^number of games played
Using the formula in our situation
Odds of emerging unscathed = (1-Odds of catching)^Number of punts with an infected partner
If this is the correct formula, and the odds are 8/10000
So daily sex for one year with an infected spouse would give you a 74.6% chance of staying clean
Daily sex for 10 years gives you only a 5% chance of never 'winning'.
This is only a pure mathematical answer though that could not be expected to predict reality. Reality is a lot different as risk would be changed by a multitude of other variables and confounds. Using math like this to make real world decisions would be like doing a cliff walk blindfolded, guided only by your GPS.
Also, winning or losing at roulette or lottery - you are the only loser. That is not the case with unsafe flying, driving, cooking, or sex.
[ Last edited by yazoo at 29-5-2015 16:37 ] | |
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