DArtagnan
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29-5-2015 14:43 |
Reply #14 wander's post
Odds of heads after one flip is 50%
Odds of heads after two flips is NOT 50%+50% ... that would be 100%, which you can disprove with a simple experiment! 
You have to multiply the odds of successive attempts: the chance of getting heads after two flips is the chance of getting it on the first flip plus the chance of NOT getting it of the first AND getting it on the second (which involves two probabilities). i.e. 50% + 50%x50% = 75%
A homework exercise for the student would be to figure the probability of getting heads on exactly the third throw ... any takers??
Having said that the odds of getting the lottery after buying one ticket on five successive draws is actually pretty close to 5x the odds of winning on one ticket, simply because the odds of not winning are so close to 1 that the error is very small. That means you're also right to an engineering approximation in your example.
But he's still right the probabilities don't merely add together!
The odds of you getting HIV from the NEXT girl you BB is the same as the odds of getting it from the LAST girl you did (all other considerations being equal eg assuming they had the same number of past partners, and the same degree of risky partners, etc)
But the odds of you getting HIV from ONE OF the next 20 girls you BB is much higher.
Totally agree nobody can afford to be complacent
And going BB is not just risky for yourself, it's irresponsible for the entire community, of girls and their clients and their families. | |
| wander |
29-5-2015 21:51 |
Acceptance +1 |
This is what I have been saying. |
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