Originally posted by Marsupial at 28-1-2010 22:35
If someone is going to retire with a lump sum of 1 mil, buying T Bonds and hedging both bond and currency exposure in the futures market would be a viable option.
20 years huh?
And with only 4.6% wiggle room to cover your futures margin calls AND living expenses AND Roll-over commissions!
And when the interest rate on the 20 year T bonds rockets up (and it can easily exceed the 17% or so reached in the early 80's), and the corresponding inflation rate does the same - you're going to be locked into your 4.6% and $46K!
And why the currency hedge? Against what? Only if you live in "easily hedged currency" countries then yes - but those are developed countries where one can hardly cover the Cost of living with US$46,000.
Youlive in Hong Kong, its pegged to the US$, other SE asian countries - most if not all of them has way higher interest rates - and the currency hedge is gonna eat you alive - That is IF you can get a bank to do such a hedge for such a small amount of $$ AND at a reasonable rate. (IMHO - it ain't gonna happen)
And oh, that is of course if the US government is not gonna go bankrupt in 20 years!!
And BTW - why 20 year? Why not the 30 year ones?
SEAJ